Conflict erupted on August 27 between Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab tribes in Deir ez-Zor following the arrest of Ahmed al-Khabil (Abu Khawla), leader of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council affiliated with the SDF.

The U.S. remained silent regarding the tribal uprising, allowing them to express their discontent and signal the SDF to adhere to their agreements. Simultaneously, the U.S. reaffirmed its support for the SDF, expressing deep concern about the violence in Deir ez-Zor and urging de-escalation.

U.S. Strategy in Deir ez-Zor

The U.S. aims to restructure the Deir ez-Zor Military Council and use the Arab tribes as a buffer against Iran and the Syrian regime in an energy-rich and strategically vital region.

The SDF serves as a protective barrier for U.S. military bases in the area, preventing Syrian regime access to additional power sources, weakening Russian influence, and obstructing Turkish alignment with Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The U.S. allowed SDF expansion at the expense of Arab tribes and prevented both the tribes and the Syrian government from benefiting from the region’s resources. These resources were appropriated by the U.S., offering only minimal benefits to the SDF to ensure loyalty and support for its separatist agenda.

SDF: Provocation, Negotiations and Goals

Repressive actions and attempts by the SDF to erase local culture in favour of liberalism have provoked Arab tribes and contributed to the outbreak of clashes.

Negotiations between Arab tribes and the SDF, facilitated by the U.S., may address some demands of the tribes and integrate rebel elements. The U.S. seeks to restore the prestige of the SDF and control their behaviour, potentially side-lining Sheikh Ibrahim Al-Hafl of the al-Uqaydat tribe.

There is a risk of exacerbating societal divisions and pushing for federal division in the region using nationalist and sectorial rhetoric. This aims to establish purely Arab control in Deir ez-Zor, expelling Kurds and Iranian militias.

Broader Regional Context

Events in Deir ez-Zor are part of the complex regional dynamics involving international powers and regional states. The goal includes managing “Israel’s” relations with Arab countries, necessitating a weakened Syrian federal system open to a peace treaty with “Israel.”

The U.S. seeks to defuse tensions between Kurds and Arab tribes and prevent chaos in the eastern region, which could be exploited by various regional players.

The statement by the U.S. Embassy emphasises support for the SDF in combating Daesh and managing conflicts to maintain stability.

The Syrian regime benefits from the SDF-tribes conflict to bolster its position, using the conflict to maintain its grip in the region.

The U.S. leverages the conflict to reengineer the political and operational landscape in Deir ez-Zor and northern Syria, isolating regions and potentially establishing a federal system.